I like to browse Google Finance when I’m in the mood for financial news including investments, mergers, failures, winners etc..
Today I caught wind of an article from Seeking Alpha with the headline ‘S&P Getting Ready To Run 2550’ – I gave it my click and read how there were several reasons the S&P 500 is going to hit 2550.
- The first reasoning was that the super-uber-mini-tiny crash a few days ago after the Federal Reserve notes were released – was recovered quickly.
a: The Federal Reserve announced that they would slow down in their own buying of market securities. This means the demand for securities should at very minimum slow down; thus prices should drop at least a little. If you take a player the size of the Federal Reserve out of the market place it will contract eventually – now the definition of eventually is where most get caught.
- The second reasoning was that a when we fired missiles on Syria the market didn’t react.
a: If a theory is the market is behaving really irrational – throwing another irrational behavior at that statement doesn’t work against the theory. In fact it adds to the idea of the irrational (in this case over priced market)
- Here is where I would add the additional reasons from the article – however after mid-way through page  I got a very annoying ‘give us your email – to finish the article’ popup. To be honest I am confident enough at this point in my life that no one knows the future – that I didn’t deem them worthy of my email.
Here is the link for you to get to annoyed with on page 2
I believe the market is damn near a random walk up and down each day within deviations. Some days the market will go down and other days up. There is a slight statistical skew to the upside, the market usually trends upwards of 1-3% per year.
The overall point is in my personal opinion the author has about a 50/50 shot at being right or wrong. I guess he’s taking the small skew advantage this time.
I try to make no suggestions or prediction on the market. I have no crystal ball and trade percentage based ideas.